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Market Pulse: East Bay, November 2019

It’s been said that “numbers never lie.” So while we may feel like our day-to-day work keeps our finger on the pulse of the Northern California commercial real estate market, it’s always good to look at the numbers and see what’s real.

So every month we scour the data in each of the regions NAI Northern California covers and determine the health of our primary markets in office, retail, industrial and multifamily properties. We check four indicators in each asset class:

  1. Current Inventory
  2. Under Construction
  3. 12-Month Net Absorption
  4. Vacancy Rate

Here below is our November 2019 report for the East Bay, which we’ve also compiled into an eye-friendly infographic. Follow our blog, social media feeds, or subscribe to our newsletter for monthly updates to this data, and for our companion reports on San Francisco, the North Bay, and the South Bay.

The Data

Office Properties: This month the East Bay office market’s inventory is slightly up, at 114 million sq. ft., with approximately 1.3 million sq. ft. under construction (up from October, but projected to decline as we enter the winter months). The 12-month net absorption rate is at 1.3 million sq. ft. of office space, continuing its rise over the last few months, and is expected to continue rising. The vacancy rate has continued its climb to 8.8 percent, but is expected to reverse directions in coming weeks.

Industrial Properties: For the industrial market, 267 million sq. ft. of space is in the inventory, slightly up from last month, and the figure is expected to continue to rise. The space under construction, 5.2 million sq. ft., has been slowly decreasing from September through October and is projected to continue to decline, as expected in the rainy season and with the holidays approaching. The 12-month net absorption rate continues to drop and is currently at -1.8 million sq. ft. of industrial space. The vacancy rate jumped from 4.9% to 5.4% for November. Both trends are projected to continue.

Retail Properties: There are 124 million sq. ft. of retail space available, which has been the same since August. The sq. ft. under construction is down to 257,000 sq. ft. and projected to decrease. The 12-month net absorption rate is at -393,000 sq. ft., up from October but expected to decline. Vacancy rates are slightly up from last month, at 3.7%, and are expected to continue to rise.

Multifamily Properties: The multifamily market is holding strong with 172,000 units available in the inventory, just 1,000 more than October. Construction is on a downswing, with 6,900 units in the pipeline, as expected for this time of year. The 12-month net absorption rate is 1,700 units, slightly down compared to the last two months. The vacancy rate is finally dropping, up to 4.3% this month, but projected to rise.

For more detailed updates or to find out how the East Bay’s submarkets are doing, contact one of our advisors. Whether you’re interested in officeindustrialretail, or multifamily properties, we can help.

Data source: Costar Analytics

Market Pulse: East Bay, October 2019

Welcome to the NAI Northern California’s “Market Pulse” feature. We checked the pulse of the East Bay commercial real estate market to discover the ups and downs of the office, industrial, retail, and multifamily markets. Each market has four dimensions: current inventory, under construction, 12-month net absorption, and vacancy rate.

Check out our October 2019 East Bay Market Pulse infographic. If a dimension is on the rise, the pulse goes above the baseline; if it’s on the decline or negative, the pulse will dip below the baseline.

This month the East Bay office market’s inventory is holding steady at 113 million sq. ft. with approximately 1 million sq. ft. under construction (slightly less than in September). The 12-month net absorption rate is at 1.1 million sq. ft. of office space, a minor increase from last month, and is expected to continue rising. The vacancy rate is higher than last month, but is expected to drop, at 8.6 percent.

For the industrial market, 266 million sq. ft. of space is in the inventory, the same as last month, but this figure is expected to rise. The space under construction, 5.3 million sq. ft., is down from last month and projected to continue to decline. The 12-month net absorption rate continues to drop and is currently at -1.2 million sq. ft. of industrial space. The vacancy rate is slowly increasing at 4.9 percent.

There are 124 million sq. ft. of retail space available, which is the same as August and September, but this is expected to increase, with 333,000 sq. ft. under construction. This is also the same as September, with a decrease expected. The 12-month net absorption rate is at -421,000 square feet. Vacancy rates are slightly down from last month, at 3.6%, but are expected to rise.

The multifamily market is holding strong with 171,000 units available in the inventory. Construction is up from last month, but is expected to go on a downswing, with 10,000 units in the pipeline. The 12-month net absorption rate is 2,000 units and has been the same for the last two months. The vacancy rate is steadily rising, up to 4.9% this month.

For more detailed updates or to find out how the East Bay’s submarkets are doing, contact one of our advisors. Whether you’re interested in officeindustrialretail, or multifamily properties, we can help.

Market Pulse: East Bay, September 2019

Welcome to the NAI Northern California’s “Market Pulse” feature. We checked the pulse of the East Bay commercial real estate market to discover the ups and downs of the office, industrial, retail, and multifamily markets. Each market has four dimensions: current inventory, under construction, 12-month net absorption, and vacancy rate.

Check out our September 2019 East Bay Market Pulse infographic. If a dimension is on the rise, the pulse goes above the baseline; if it’s on the decline or negative, the pulse will dip below the baseline.

This month the East Bay office market’s inventory is up to 113 million sq. ft., with approximately 1.2 million sq. ft. under construction on an upward trend. The 12-month net absorption rate is at 1 million sq. ft. of office space. The vacancy rate is up slightly from last month but expected to drop, at 8.2 percent.

For the industrial market, 266 million sq. ft. of space is in the inventory and rising. The space under construction is also rising, at 5.7 million square feet. The 12-month net absorption has dropped significantly compared to last month, at -942,000 sq. ft. of industrial space. The vacancy rate is up slightly from last month and rising, at 4.8 percent.

There are 124 million sq. ft. of retail space available, the same as last month but on an upward trend, with 333,000 sq. ft. under construction on a declining path. The 12-month net absorption rate is at -393,000. Vacancy rates continue to rise, at 3.7%.

The multifamily market is holding strong, up to 171,000 units available in the inventory. Construction is up from last month but headed on a downswing, at 9,800 units in the pipeline. The 12-month net absorption rate is 2,000 units, the same as last month, with a rising vacancy rate of 4.6%.

For more detailed updates or to find out how the East Bay’s submarkets are doing, contact one of our advisors; whether you’re interested in officeindustrialretail, or multifamily properties, we can help.

Top investment sales firm NAI Northern California continues expansion in first half of 2019

Leader in Bay Area multifamily, retail, and office investment sales and leasing transactions has aggressive growth plan

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – August 21, 2019 – As the second quarter of 2019 has come to a close, Bay Area commercial real estate brokerage NAI Northern California has continued its expansion with an aggressive growth plan. President James Kilpatrick remarks, “We are well on track to top our total sales volume this year as we expand our team and continue to develop tech-forward strategies to serve our clients.”

NAI Northern California and its brokers were recognized both locally and nationally in the first half of the year. The brokerage was ranked as a Top Sales Firm by CoStar in both the San Francisco and East Bay/Oakland markets, and vice president Tim Warren was named a Top Sales Broker for his work in the East Bay/Oakland market. Investment advisor and rising star CJ Brill was awarded a scholarship for the International Council of Shopping Centers’ RECon conference in Las Vegas. The company’s top-producing agent for Q1 through Q2 was senior investment advisor Rudas Gebregiorgas, followed closely by Mary Alam, Grant Chappell, Alex Barker, Doug Sharpe, Joby Tapia, Tim Warren, Kent Mitchell, Jordan Geller, and Joshua Ballesteros.

The company expanded into the greater Silicon Valley area with the hire of Tod Rudee as Executive Vice President in San Jose. Tod brings nearly 30 years of extensive experience in commercial real estate strategy, transaction services, and brokerage performance management in Silicon Valley. His previous background includes leading the San Jose office as Managing Director for CBRE as well as management roles with Colliers International and Premier Properties. 

The majority of the company’s business was multifamily investment sales for Q1 and Q2. Notable sales included Joby Tapia’s $18 million sale of the Central Valley Homes Apartments, a 24-unit complex in Mill Valley; the Mitchell Warren Team’s $14 million sale of 44 units at 888 Vermont Street in Oakland; and the $11.3 million sale of the Terrace at Fair Oaks complex in Carmichael by Rudas Gebregiorgas and Grant Chappell.

For the first two quarters of 2019, single tenant NNN and multi-tenanted retail center sales were a close second. The $25 million in sales completed by the Mary Alam Team included a $6.7 million Walgreensa $3.8 million retail complex in Tracy, and a $3.65 million Regal Cinemas sold by the Mary Alam Team and Ganga Balebail.

Industrial and office properties rounded out NAI Northern California’s sales for the first half of the year. The most notable assets were a $12 million mixed-use development site in South Beach, San Francisco sold by Alex Barker; a $2 million office/warehouse building in West SOMA, San Francisco sold by the Geller Williams team; and a $2.5 million medical office redevelopment deal in San Jose sold by the Mary Alam Team. Vacant land and mixed-use buildings made up the rest of the properties sold by the brokerage. 

Commercial leasing is an increasing part of the company’s business, with leases to boutique and multinational businesses from a range of industries. Spaces leased by NAI Northern California during Q1 and Q2 ranged from 1,100 square feet to 35,000 square feet, for both office and industrial uses. 

Coming into the second half of the year, NAI Northern California has an aggressive growth plan and is currently hiring commercial real estate agents and senior investment sales advisors for all their offices (San Francisco, Oakland, and San Jose) as well as additional leadership roles for both their San Francisco and Oakland offices. Community outreach and volunteering efforts have also been a key component of company life with volunteer days at Project Open Hand in Oakland and San Francisco.

 

About NAI Northern California

NAI Northern California is a full service commercial real estate firm serving the San Francisco Bay Area and beyond. Our team delivers technology-enabled commercial real estate services that create value for our clients, industry, and communities.

NAI Northern California is a partner of NAI Global, the largest commercial real estate brokerage network with more than 350 offices worldwide and over 6,000 professionals completing in excess of $20 billion in commercial real estate transactions globally.

Recently on the San Francisco Business Times Book of Lists, NAI Northern California hit the top 5 and 6 spots in San Francisco and the East Bay and top 10 Bay Area wide. NAI Northern California is part of the NAI Global network, recently recognized by Lipsey as the number 4 most recognizable commercial real estate brand.

Transit-oriented development on the rise

Cities across the Bay Area are opening up to transit-oriented development, building high-density housing with ground-floor retail near BART stations, including on BART-owned land. Despite neighbor complaints, cities are revising their zoning restrictions to allow bigger buildings near major transit hubs.

Most of the development is happening in the East Bay, with completed projects near at least eight stations and more under construction including a 402-unit apartment complex at MacArthur Station with 13,000 square feet of commercial space; 94 units at Fruitvale Station; 200 units at Pleasant Hill Station; 410,000 square feet of commercial space at West Dublin/Pleasanton Station; and 596 units at Walnut Creek Station. Planned projects in Millbrae, West Oakland, Lake Merritt, North Concord/Martinez, Balboa Park, and Fruitvale total over 2,300 units and over 2 million square feet of commercial space.

As zoning codes begin to relax near transit, future development opportunities could open up, strengthening the local markets for existing multifamily buildings as well as retail and office assets.

Source: SF Chronicle

How are developers preparing for sea level rise?

The Bay is expected to rise up to 10 feet in the next 80 years; how are local developers protecting their waterfront projects? According to the SF Business Times, “With the right planning, project designs and innovative construction, new developments can not only survive the effects of climate change, but in some cases, can help protect the region from flooding and erosion.”

Depending on what changes the world makes (or doesn’t make) to slow climate change, California estimates that waters will rise 1.1 to 2.7 feet by 2050 and between 2.4 and 10.2 feet by 2100. Most developers and project planners aim to be ready for 2 feet of sea-level rise by 2050 and 6 feet by 2100.

One solution is to truck in dirt to raise the level of the ground before building; Brooklyn Basin, a master-planned community on Oakland’s waterfront, elevated the land 3 feet with this method, and it is also being used on Treasure Island. The Treasure Island development is also using the strategy of siting buildings farther away from the shoreline to allow room for future retaining walls or levies. Terracing is also an option; India Basin and Pier 70 in San Francisco are building homes on sites that already sit well above the water, even if it means they’re a little farther from the waterfront. A more back-to-nature approach is restoring the Bay’s wetlands and marshes, which absorb water and slow flooding.

New developments have many strategies to survive sea level rise, but it remains to be seen how older buildings and infrastructure can be protected. There are currently 48,895 homes in the Bay Area worth a total of $31.8 billion that are at risk of flooding due to sea-level rise, on 48 to 166 square miles of threatened shoreline.

Source: SF Business Times

Market Pulse: East Bay, August 2019

Welcome to NAI Northern California’s “Market Pulse” feature. We checked the pulse of the East Bay commercial real estate market to discover the ups and downs of the office, industrial, retail, and multifamily markets.  Each market has four dimensions: current inventory, 12-month net absorption, under construction, and vacancy rate.

Check out our August 2019 East Bay Market Pulse infographic. If a dimension is on the rise, the pulse goes above the baseline; if it’s on the decline or negative, the pulse will dip below the baseline.

This month the East Bay office market’s inventory is up to 112 million sq. ft., with 12-month net absorption down at 819,000 sq. ft. of office space. Approximately 1.4 million sq. ft. are under construction with an upward trend. The vacancy rate is dropping, at 8.2 percent.

For the industrial market, 265 million sq. ft. of space is in the inventory and rising. The 12-month net absorption is almost even, dropping to -1,100 square feet. The space under construction is also dropping, at 6 million square feet, and the vacancy rate is rising to 4.9%.

There are 124 million sq. ft. of retail space available, on an upward trend, with a 12-month net absorption rate of 29,000 sq. ft. (a decreasing trend). Over 340,000 sq. ft. are under construction, with more in the pipeline. Vacancy rates continue to rise, at 3.5%.

The multifamily market is holding strong, up to 170,000 units available in the inventory. The 12-month net absorption rate is 2,000 units. Construction is on the upswing here, at 9,400 units, with a rising vacancy rate of 4.5%.

For more detailed updates or to find out how the East Bay’s submarkets are doing, contact one of our advisors; whether you’re interested in office, industrial, retail, or multifamily properties, we can help.

NAI Northern California Presents: Record-Breaking Sale of 25 Units in Lafayette

Sale of 3535 Brook Street in the East Bay Area by NAI Northern California sets record price per unit and per sq. ft.

LAFAYETTE, CA –  August 6, 2019 –  NAI Northern California is pleased to announce the sale of 3535 Brook Street in Lafayette for $12 million, which shatters the previous pricing record by more than $50,000 per unit and $44 per square foot. The Mitchell Warren Team and Berger Mandel Team represented both the buyer and seller, delivering an unsolicited all-cash offer. This 25-unit apartment building is blocks from Mt. Diablo Boulevard and from the Lafayette BART station.

“The buyer was looking for assets in the Lafayette market, and our team was able to secure a property that he had wanted to purchase for many years,” according to Vice President Tim Warren. “This was definitely a win/win transaction for both the buyer and seller.”

3535 Brook Street is a fully leased 25-unit apartment complex, a rare multifamily asset in the Lamorinda market. It features an on-site laundry, swimming pool, spacious garden, and generous parking. The site is conveniently located just a block away from Lafayette Square and the downtown shopping district and within walking distance of local schools, library, restaurants, and other amenities.

Lafayette is known for its pastoral rolling hills, good schools, and wealthy inhabitants. In 2016, the median household income in Lafayette was over $140,000, more than twice the statewide average and about two and half times the national median.

It is rated #5 in “Best Places to Live in Contra Costa County” and boasts a thriving nightlife without sacrificing the “small town” feeling and pleasant weather for the variety of outdoor amenities in the vicinity.

Lafayette is also near several local attractions, including but not limited to the Lafayette Hillside Memorial, Lafayette Reservoir Recreation Area, and Briones Regional Park.

The Mitchell Warren Team is comprised of Kent Mitchell, Tim Warren, Randell Silva, and Alex Lin. The Ethan Berger Team is comprised of Ethan Berger, Benjamin Mandel, and Garrett Blair.

 

About NAI Northern California

NAI Northern California is a full service commercial real estate firm serving the San Francisco Bay Area and beyond. Our team delivers technology-enabled commercial real estate services that create value for our clients, industry, and communities.

NAI Northern California is a partner of NAI Global, the largest commercial real estate brokerage network, with more than 375 offices worldwide and over 6,000 professionals completing in excess of $20 billion in commercial real estate transactions globally.

Recently on the San Francisco Business Times Book of Lists, NAI Northern California hit the top 5 and 6 spots in San Francisco and the East Bay and top 15 Bay Area wide. NAI Northern California is part of the NAI Global network, recently recognized by Lipsey as the number 4 most recognizable commercial real estate brand.

Market Pulse: East Bay, July 2019

Welcome to NAI Northern California’s “Market Pulse” feature. We checked the pulse of the East Bay commercial real estate market to discover the ups and downs of the office, industrial, retail, and multifamily markets.  Each market has four dimensions: current inventory, 12-month net absorption, under construction, and vacancy rate.

Check out our July 2019 East Bay Market Pulse infographic. If a dimension is on the rise, the pulse goes above the baseline; if it’s on the decline or negative, the pulse will dip below the baseline.

This month the East Bay office market’s inventory is up to 112 million sq. ft., with 12-month net absorption also up at 134,000 sq. ft. of office space. Approximately 1.7 million sq. ft. are under construction with a downward trend. The vacancy rate is rising, at 8.7 percent.

For the industrial market, 265 million sq. ft. of space is in the inventory and rising. The 12-month net absorption is almost even, dropping to -1,300 square feet. The space under construction is also dropping, at 5.3 million square feet, and the vacancy rate is rising to 5%.

There are 124 million sq. ft. of retail space available, and more coming, with a 12-month net absorption rate of 5,000 sq. ft. (an increasing trend). Less is being built, though, with only 345,000 sq. ft. under construction. Vacancy rates continue to rise, at 3.5%.

The multifamily market is holding strong, up to 16,900 units available in the inventory. The 12-month net absorption rate is 1,300 units. Construction is on the downswing here, at 9,800 units, with a rising vacancy rate of 4.6%.

For more detailed updates or to find out how the East Bay’s submarkets are doing, contact one of our advisors; whether you’re interested in office, industrial, retail, or multifamily properties, we can help.

NAI Northern California Presents: Record-Setting Sale of Multifamily Building in San Pablo

Sale of 2394 Road 20 in the East Bay Area by the Ethan Berger Team sets record price per unit

SAN PABLO, CA –  July 16, 2019 –  NAI Northern California is pleased to announce the sale of 2394 Road 20 in San Pablo for $4.495 million, setting a new record for price per unit for San Pablo multifamily properties. The Ethan Berger Team originally represented the seller, a local multifamily private equity group based in the Bay Area, when they purchased the apartment building in June of 2017 as a value-add opportunity in need of significant renovation and improved management. After successfully renovating and rehabbing the property, the units were re-tenanted, yielding nearly a 110% increase in the gross rents. The seller then enlisted the Ethan Berger Team (Ethan Berger, Benjamin Mandel, and Garrett Blair) to determine a value and market the property. They quickly developed multiple competitive offers and identified a buyer, achieving a record-setting price per unit of $249,722 and a total return on investment for the seller of nearly 95%. “After we identified the opportunity, we leveraged our local-market expertise and knowledge to help our client throughout the process of buying the property, improving it, and completing the sale.” said Ethan Berger, Senior Vice President at NAI Northern California. “Our relationships and extensive marketing platform were key in maximizing our client’s ROI.”

2394 Road 20 consists of fifteen large 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom apartments and three 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom apartments in a core Bay Area location. A complete renovation of the property and all of the units was completed in 2018. Each unit features laminate-wood flooring throughout the living spaces; brand-new kitchen and bathroom cabinetry; and new countertops, fixtures, and stainless-steel appliance packages. The exterior of the property was also upgraded with new paint, outdoor design features, landscaping, sewer lateral replacement, and parking lot striping. The building has on-site coin-operated laundry and is located within 10 minutes of El Cerrito Del Norte and Richmond BART Stations and less than one mile from Contra Costa College.

 

About NAI Northern California

NAI Northern California is a full service commercial real estate firm serving the San Francisco Bay Area and beyond. Our team delivers technology-enabled commercial real estate services that create value for our clients, industry, and communities.

NAI Northern California is a partner of NAI Global, the largest commercial real estate brokerage network with more than 400 offices worldwide and over 7,000 professionals completing in excess of $20 billion in commercial real estate transactions globally.

Recently on the San Francisco Business Times Book of Lists, NAI Northern California hit the top 5 and 6 spots in San Francisco and the East Bay and top 15 Bay Area wide. NAI Northern California is part of the NAI Global network, recently recognized by Lipsey as the number 4 most recognizable commercial real estate brand.