It’s been said that “numbers never lie.” So while we may feel like our day-to-day work keeps our finger on the pulse of the Northern California commercial real estate market, it’s always good to look at the numbers and see what’s real.
So every month we scour the data in each of the regions NAI Northern California covers and determine the health of our primary markets in office, retail, industrial and multifamily properties. We check four indicators in each asset class:
- Current Inventory
- Under Construction
- 12-Month Net Absorption
- Vacancy Rate
Here below is our November 2019 report for the North Bay, which we’ve also compiled into an eye-friendly infographic. Follow our blog, social media feeds, or subscribe to our newsletter for monthly updates to this data, and for our companion reports on San Francisco, the East Bay, and the South Bay.
The Data
Office Properties: This month the North Bay office market’s inventory is at 40.8 million sq. ft. and holding flat with approximately 150,000 sq. ft. under construction, the same as last month but projected to decline. The 12-month net absorption rate continues its erratic pattern, at -7,300 sq. ft. and expected to go back on the decline. The vacancy rate is at 8.2 percent, slightly down from October and expected to hold there.
Industrial Properties: For the industrial market, 105 million sq. ft. of space is in the inventory, slightly up from last month but expected to increase. The space under construction is the same as October, at 2.3 million sq. ft. of industrial space and projected to rise. The 12-month net absorption is way down, at 77,000 sq. ft. compared to October’s 222,000 sq. ft., and the vacancy rate is at 4.0% and declining.
Retail Properties: There are 65.7 million sq. ft. of retail space available, slightly less than last month and projected to increase. The sq. ft. under construction is at 105,000 sq. ft., up from October’s 104,000 sq. ft., but on a downward trend. The 12-month net absorption rate continues to plunge, now negative 87,000 square feet. Vacancy rates are up slightly from last month and the month before, at 3.8%, and are expected to continue to rise.
Multifamily Properties: The multifamily market is holding steady at 60,000 units available in the inventory, but that number is projected to increase. Construction is expected to slow, at 542 units (the same as September and October). The 12-month net absorption rate averages just 26 units across the North Bay area and is expected to rise, with a steadily rising vacancy rate of 5.6 percent.
The North Bay market includes Santa Rosa, Napa, Vallejo, Fairfield, San Rafael, Marin, and more. For more detailed updates or to find out how the North Bay’s submarkets are doing, contact one of our advisors. Whether you’re interested in office, industrial, retail, or multifamily properties, we can help.
Data source: Costar Analytics
