As 2017 comes to a close, commercial real estate total transaction volume is over $500 billion according to CoStar. Although, that equates to a 14 percent year over year decline, many forget that those levels are still higher than 2006—a banner year. Regardless, numerous industry observers are holding their collective breath. In fact, Janet Yellen began 2017 indicating a potential bubble in commercial real estate driven in part by today’s extended low interest rate environment.
In response, lenders, investors and regulators remain anxious with the possibilities of cap rates blowing out in the face of rising interest rates. But are these concerns warranted and will the nomination of Jay Powell actually lead to strong levels of commercial real estate price growth?