It’s been said that “numbers never lie.” So while we may feel like our day-to-day work keeps our finger on the pulse of the Northern California commercial real estate market, it’s always good to look at the numbers and see what’s real.

So every month we scour the data in each of the regions NAI Northern California covers and determine the health of our primary markets in office, retail, industrial and multifamily properties. We check four indicators in each asset class:

1. Current Inventory
2. Under Construction
3. 12-Month Net Absorption
4. Vacancy Rate

Here below is our November 2019 report for the East Bay, which we’ve also compiled into an eye-friendly infographic. Follow our blog, social media feeds, or subscribe to our newsletter for monthly updates to this data, and for our companion reports on San Francisco, the North Bay, and the South Bay.

The Data

Office Properties: This month the East Bay office market’s inventory is slightly up, at 114 million sq. ft., with approximately 1.3 million sq. ft. under construction (up from October, but projected to decline as we enter the winter months). The 12-month net absorption rate is at 1.3 million sq. ft. of office space, continuing its rise over the last few months, and is expected to continue rising. The vacancy rate has continued its climb to 8.8 percent, but is expected to reverse directions in coming weeks.

Industrial Properties: For the industrial market, 267 million sq. ft. of space is in the inventory, slightly up from last month, and the figure is expected to continue to rise. The space under construction, 5.2 million sq. ft., has been slowly decreasing from September through October and is projected to continue to decline, as expected in the rainy season and with the holidays approaching. The 12-month net absorption rate continues to drop and is currently at -1.8 million sq. ft. of industrial space. The vacancy rate jumped from 4.9% to 5.4% for November. Both trends are projected to continue.

Retail Properties: There are 124 million sq. ft. of retail space available, which has been the same since August. The sq. ft. under construction is down to 257,000 sq. ft. and projected to decrease. The 12-month net absorption rate is at -393,000 sq. ft., up from October but expected to decline. Vacancy rates are slightly up from last month, at 3.7%, and are expected to continue to rise.

Multifamily Properties: The multifamily market is holding strong with 172,000 units available in the inventory, just 1,000 more than October. Construction is on a downswing, with 6,900 units in the pipeline, as expected for this time of year. The 12-month net absorption rate is 1,700 units, slightly down compared to the last two months. The vacancy rate is finally dropping, up to 4.3% this month, but projected to rise.

For more detailed updates or to find out how the East Bay’s submarkets are doing, contact one of our advisors. Whether you’re interested in office, industrial, retail, or multifamily properties, we can help.

Data source: Costar Analytics