US Neighborhoods with the Best Property ROI

The San Francisco Business Times released this report yesterday after crunching some Zillow numbers, showing the 20 neighborhoods in the US that have delivered the best return on real estate investment in the past 10 years. 

Many of the most lucrative markets lie north of San Jose…right in our wheelhouse. 

Now granted, this list looks at residential real estate. But we’ve all heard that rumor about a rising tide lifting other boats. As the Bay Area and Northern California has grown, it has ALL grown.

Let’s walk through this logically. People want to live in the dynamic City of San Francisco, or near their jackpot job in Silicon Valley. But they don’t want to spend what it costs to live there. So they fan out into the perimeter, raising demand in Richmond, Stockton, Merced.

Well guess what? It’s not just home-buyers in that scenario. It’s renters of multifamily units too. And now those people want shopping centers and auto repair shops and chiropractic offices. 

So if you’re looking for an ideal spot for a commercial investment, you might look at where the people are. Here’s where demand has grown the most.

Want to think about buying or selling in these areas? Consult with one of our advisors. 

Investor confidence in multifamily real estate begins recovery

According to a survey by National Real Estate Investor, confidence in multifamily properties appears to be recovering after a dip in 2018, though all other classes of commercial real estate have been neutral or dropped slightly. The survey asked respondents to rate the attractiveness of the major commercial real estate markets on a scale of one to ten. Most investors prefer multifamily and industrial properties over hotels, office, and retail; last year multifamily and industrial were tied for desirability, but this year multifamily pulled ahead at a 7.9 and industrial fell to a 7.5. They are both still well ahead of the other categories, though; hotels are a 5.9, offices are a 5.8, and retail is just a 4.8. 

Compared to 2018’s rankings, hotels dropped .2 points, offices dropped .1 point, retail held steady, and industrial dropped .2 points. Overall, multifamily has been a rock in the current real estate cycle, despite cap rates being driven lower by the high demand for multifamily. 

While desirability doesn’t necessarily reflect actual sales and purchases, sentiment can be a useful data point in the commercial real estate market. For more information about the current state of the market and how the San Francisco Bay Area differs from the nation as a whole, contact one of our advisors; we have specialists in multifamily and industrial properties as well as office and retail.

Source: National Real Estate Investor

Bay Area markets rank in top 5 for most expensive office space in the Americas

Downtown San Francisco and the Peninsula rank #3 and #4 for the most expensive commercial office space on the continent, according to Globe Street and CBRE. For Q1 2019, the cost per square foot per year for prime office space downtown was $130.51, with office space in the Peninsula costing an average of $116.28 per year. New York City still holds the top two slots, with the Midtown-Manhattan and Midtown-South Manhattan markets, and Boston’s Downtown is just behind the Peninsula at $106.60 per sq. ft. per year.

Office space costs in the Americas continue to rise, 3.7% higher than Q1 of last year, and they’re rising faster; Q1 2018 was only 3.2% more expensive than the previous year. Globally, rents for prime office space rose 3.6% compared to 2.5% the year before.

The most expensive office markets worldwide are Hong Kong Central, at $322; London’s West End at $222.70; and Hong Kong Kowloon at $208.67 per sq. ft. per year. Downtown San Francisco and the Peninsula rank 11th and 13th, behind Beijing’s Finance Street, Beijing’s Central Business District, Tokyo, and the City of London.

Foreign investment rising for net lease assets

Foreign investment in commercial real estate is on the rise due to the search for yield and portfolio diversification, according to the World Property Journal. Globally, investment in net lease properties (office, retail, and industrial) averaged $3 billion per year from 2011 to 2014 and is up to more than $8 billion per year from 2015 to 2019. In the United States, foreign investments for Q1 2019 represented 15.1% of net lease transactions, totaling $1.9 billion, up 6.6% compared to Q1 last year when they only represented 12.9% of the market. In 2018, foreign investors held 30.1% more net lease properties than in 2017, an $8.8 billion increase.

Most of these investors are from Canada, South Korea, and China. Canadians invested $5.55 billion, with a focus on industrial properties; South Koreans invested $3.28 billion, overwhelmingly preferring office space; and Chinese investments of $3.22 billion also focused on industrial assets.

So far this year, New York City, San Francisco, Boston, Dallas, Columbus, and Los Angeles have received the most foreign capital, but commercial real estate investments in high-growth secondary and tertiary markets like Phoenix, Seattle, Baltimore, and Atlanta are also becoming popular.

Source: World Property Journal

San Jose and Oakland challenge SF in private equity real estate market

California’s largest cities for real estate investment, San Francisco and Los Angeles, are now being challenged by San Jose and Oakland. California holds almost 20% of the private equity real estate (PERE) in the country and 12% of global PERE assets under management, according to a study by accounting and advisory firm EisnerAmper and Preqin. PERE properties include office buildings (high-rise, urban, suburban and garden offices); industrial properties (warehouse, research and development, flexible office/industrial space); retail properties, shopping centers (neighborhood, community, and power centers); and multifamily apartments (garden and high-rise). Less common but still an option are senior or student housing, hotels, self-storage, medical offices, single-family housing to own or rent, undeveloped land, and manufacturing space (via Investopedia). 

So how do the Bay Area cities compare?

San Francisco’s strength is in its office market, with $3.2 billion PERE deals in 2018 (a $1 billion increase over 2017) and another $1 billion already invested this year as the Bay Area’s largest tech companies continue to expand. The overall PERE total for last year was $4 billion,down from $4.8 billion in 2017; according to an article in the San Francisco Business times, “the drop-off in the quantity of large mixed-use transactions compared with recent years is at the heart of the decrease.” San Francisco is also running out of space, which limits growth.

While San Francisco is still the largest market for office transactions in the Bay Area, San Jose is leading in growth. Their office transactions in 2017 and 2018 both reached $1 billion, with a record in 2018 at $1.2 billion. In Q1 of 2019 alone, these transactions reached $500 million, putting San Jose on track to quadruple its PERE deals this year. The overall PERE total for 2018 was another record of $2.7 billion, almost 60% more than 2017 and a sharp contrast to San Francisco. 

Oakland may be emerging as a competitor, with more reasonable housing options for tenants; the tech company Square announced at the end of last year their intent to move 2,000 employees into an Oakland office. Even as a smaller city, it is on track to reach a total of $1 billion in PERE deals this year, with $560 million in Q1 2019 already; $493 million of that was just two office space deals by Starwood Capital Group. The city also has more Opportunity Zones than either of the other two cities.

With San Francisco as the “benchmark,” San Jose as the “growth leader,” and Oakland as the “up and comer” (according to the SF Business Times), all three cities are going strong.

Source: SF Business Times

 

What’s the hold-up on housing development in the Bay Area?

Bay Area paradox: We need housing, but we don’t want to build faster.

Chronic lawsuits against new Bay Area housing developments. Loud, angry protests against pro-growth legislators and mayors. If the Bay Area has an all-season contact sport, it’s the recurring NIMBY fights against housing construction. And although almost everyone agrees housing prices are too high, few want to see faster development to tackle the problem, according to a recent Bay Area poll for the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and this news organization.

Read more on NAI Northern California’s Newsletter

Is Bay Area housing still a sizzling hot housing market?

Even cool, Bay Area housing market is still hot.

The San Jose housing market has cooled more than any other in the country — and it’s still the hottest in the nation, according to a recent Zillow survey. The bidding wars and quick cash sales have abated, and home sellers are cutting prices more often and waiting longer to close deals than a year ago. But middle-income families still struggle to afford the median-priced home of $1.2 million in the San Jose metro area. A typical family needs to put about $600,000 down to fit that mortgage comfortably in their budget.

Read more on NAI Northern California’s Newsletter

 

 

How are there over 100,000 vacant homes in the San Francisco metro area?

An estimated 100,025 homes are sitting empty in the San Francisco metro area.

Compared to other cities, San Francisco metro area’s vacancy rate is actually low at 5.6 percent. Of the 1.784 million households counted in the census region, roughly 1.684 million are occupied. LendingTree concludes a region like San Francisco – which includes Oakland, Hayward and surrounding areas is what’s considered a sellers’ market, meaning people selling their homes will easily find buyers, while future homeowners will struggle to buy. Anyone who has tried to buy a home in the city in the last decade knows this to be true.

Read more on SF Gate

Silicon Valley has the highest housing costs in the U.S.

Report says both incomes and costs soaring in the state’s tech capitol.

It’s the best of time and the worst of times in Silicon Valley, at least according to Joint Venture Silicon Valley, a regional think-tank that issued its annual Silicon Valley Index last week.

The 2019 index, a “comprehensive report based on indicators that measure the strength of our economy and the health of our community,” describes the Valley as materially successful but fundamentally anxious, as new wealth puts additional stress on those most vulnerable.

The report defines Silicon Valley as a broad region encompassing parts of Santa Clara, San Mateo, and Alameda Counties, ranging from Daly City to Union City to Gilroy to Scotts Valley.

The index includes some data from San Francisco for context but does not include the city as part of its larger regional definition. Most of the data covers 2017, with some references to 2018 as well.

 

Read more at Curbed SF 

 

 

In 2069, your food will shop for you

Industry experts place their bets on the supermarket of the future.

The trouble with predictions about the future of food is that they usually wind up being wrong. Where, for instance, is the dog-sized cow engineered to graze in my backyard? Meals today don’t come in pill form, and despite decades of anticipation, insects haven’t replaced farm animals as a meaningful source of protein. You’ll understand why I’ve approached the question of how we’ll shop for food in the year 2069 with some amount of hesitancy.

To find my footing, I called Max Elder at the Institute for the Future, a think tank based in Palo Alto, California. Elder works as a researcher in the Food Futures Lab, which companies and governments hire to do exactly the type of blue-sky thinking that conjures up an idea like that backyard cow—or, in this particular case, blenders and refrigerators that can conspire to manipulate commodity markets. Whether or not these concepts bear out, Elder tells me, he believes that engaging in such speculation is critical to shaping our world. Fail to dream about the future, and you forfeit your role in its creation.

Today, the grocery store is in a period of particularly rapid change, as more and more companies vie for their share of America’s $650 billion food retail sector. Legacy supermarket chains like Kroger and Albertsons are now up against discount rivals like Walmart and Costco, European transplants Aldi and Lidl, plus drugstores, dollar stores, and, of course Amazon, which has been steadily encroaching on food retail since its 2017 acquisition of Whole Foods. All that competition has produced a climate of innovation, as retailers try to best each other on exclusive products and services, value, technology, and convenience. The choices they make matter: Everybody eats, after all, and what we consume is determined to a large extent by what our grocery stores decide to offer.

In forecasting where the industry will go over the next few decades, Elder told me, “The idea is to push people beyond notions of what’s plausible to what’s possible. What are the values implicit in the question? What will the food system look like if we optimize for different values?” He encouraged me to think of it all not so much as predictions but imaginings. So, I decided to suspend disbelief, loosen my grip on reality, and imagine a world where T-bone steaks grow on trees (or at least in bioreactors), snacks are tailored to my microbiome, and my morning coffee arrives by drone. Saddle up, everyone! Don’t forget your decoder rings.

Read more at Medium