Can San Francisco Break in to the Top Category of World Cities for CRE Investment?

According to a new system of ranking by JLL and The Business of Cities, an intelligence and strategy firm, San Francisco is the top contender for breaking into the highest level of Established World Cities for commercial real estate investment. At the top are the Big Seven, which “account for nearly one-quarter of all capital invested in commercial real estate globally” and are comprised of London, New York, Paris, Singapore, Tokyo, Seoul, and Hong Kong. San Francisco is number eight on the ranking of 46 indices and 7 categories that cover corporate presence; global flows; scale and market size; infrastructure platform; talent; innovation; and soft power.

“Global cities that adapt to new economic models focusing on quality of life, innovation, sustainability, governance and resilience are becoming new sources of real estate demand and attracting higher cross-border investment,” says an article about the report by Multi-Housing News.

The Contenders, the second-strongest category after the Big Seven and the one San Francisco tops, have shown the fastest growth in real estate investment over the last cycle and the strongest rental office growth since 2000.

Silicon Valley also shows up on the rankings list as a New World City in the Innovator category; this group has seen investment volumes grow by 50 percent since 2006 and ranks just behind the Big Seven for real estate investment intensity. San Francisco’s Contenders category is number four on that list, behind the Lifestyle cities. The remaining categories are Influencers, Megahubs, Enterprisers, Powerhouses, Hybrids, and National Growth Engines.

Sources: Multi-Housing News, Commercial Property Executive

 

Market Pulse: North Bay, September 2019

Welcome to the NAI Northern California’s “Market Pulse” feature. We checked the pulse of the North Bay commercial real estate market to discover the ups and downs of the office, industrial, retail, and multifamily markets. Each market has four dimensions: current inventory, under construction, 12-month net absorption, and vacancy rate.

Check out our September 2019 North Bay Market Pulse infographic. If a dimension is on the rise, the pulse goes above the baseline; if it’s on the decline or negative, the pulse will dip below the baseline.

This month the North Bay office market’s inventory is at 40.8 million sq. ft., slightly up from last month but holding flat, with approximately 147,000 sq. ft. under construction. This is way down from last month’s 17.2 million sq. ft. of office space. The 12-month net absorption rate is also down, at 56,000 square feet. The vacancy rate is at 7.8 percent and expected to hold there.

For the industrial market, 106 million sq. ft. of space is in the inventory, with more on the way, and the space under construction is also rising, at 2.1 million sq. ft., over a million more than last month. The 12-month net absorption is at 206,000 sq. ft., and the vacancy rate is at 3.9% and declining.

There are 65.6 million sq. ft. of retail space available, the same as last month, and the sq. ft. under construction also hasn’t changed at 72,000 sq. ft. but on a downward trend. The 12-month net absorption rate is way down at 22,000 square feet. Vacancy rates are down slightly from last month, at 3.5%, but expected to rise.

The multifamily market is up to 60,000 units available in the inventory. Construction is on the downswing here, at 542 units. The 12-month net absorption rate averages just 63 units across the North Bay area and is on the rise, with a rising vacancy rate of 5.2%.

The North Bay market includes Santa Rosa, Napa, Vallejo, Fairfield, San Rafael, Marin, and more; for more detailed updates or to find out how the North Bay’s submarkets are doing, contact one of our advisors. Whether you’re interested in officeindustrialretail, or multifamily properties, we can help.

Data source: CoStar Analytics

Market Pulse: South Bay, September 2019

Welcome to the NAI Northern California’s “Market Pulse” feature. We checked the pulse of the South Bay commercial real estate market to discover the ups and downs of the office, industrial, retail, and multifamily markets. Each market has four dimensions: current inventory, under construction, 12-month net absorption, and vacancy rate.

Check out our September 2019 South Bay Market Pulse infographic. If a dimension is on the rise, the pulse goes above the baseline; if it’s on the decline or negative, the pulse will dip below the baseline.

This month the South Bay office market’s inventory is up 1 million sq. ft. from last month to 130 million sq. ft. and continues to rise. Approximately 5.6 million sq. ft. are under construction, slightly down from August but trending upward. The 12-month net absorption rate is the same as last month at 2.7 million sq. ft. of office space. The vacancy rate is at 8.4 percent and dropping.

For the industrial market, 197 million sq. ft. of space is in the inventory and rising. The space under construction is also rising, at 771,000 sq. ft. (the same as last month). The 12-month net absorption is way up from August, at 1 million sq. ft., formerly 844,000 square feet. The vacancy rate hasn’t changed, at 5.7%, but is trending downward.

There are 79.8 million sq. ft. of retail space available and dropping. The space under construction is the same as last month, at 1 million sq. ft., but expected to decline. The 12-month net absorption rate last month was 78,000 sq. ft. and has dropped dramatically to -7,000 square feet. Vacancy rates are slightly up from last month, at 3.4%, but trending downward.

The multifamily market is holding strong at 144,000 units available in the inventory, the same as last month. Construction is way up from last month, from 1,000 units to 9,700 units. The 12-month net absorption rate is 2,600 units and rising steadily.  The vacancy rate is at 4.3%, no change from last month, but expected to drop.

The South Bay market stretches from Palo Alto down through Mountain View, San Jose, Morgan Hill, Gilroy, Hollister and southeast through the mountains; for more detailed updates or to find out how the South Bay’s submarkets are doing, contact one of our advisors. Whether you’re interested in officeindustrialretail, or multifamily properties, we can help.

Data source: CoStar Analytics

Three New Housing Bills to Impact Multifamily Real Estate Market

The multifamily commercial real estate market is likely to be impacted by three housing bills currently making their way through the California legislature. Senate Bills 330 and 13, and Assembly Bill 1485, each seek to relieve the state’s housing crisis by allowing additional construction and streamlining the approval process.

Sponsored by Senator Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley), SB 330 will limit how strict cities can make their zoning. According to Bisnow, the proposal “prevents governments from downzoning until 2025; setting parking minimums or imposing housing moratoriums; or enacting other local measures that have made housing development nearly impossible in space-strapped areas.” It also “limits the number of public hearings on a zoning-compliant housing development proposal to five, and the length of time its permits can be considered.” Ideally this will make it easier and faster (and therefore cheaper) to build multifamily housing.

Assembly Bill 1485 aims to expand on 2018’s SB 35, a bill that was supposed to remove “discretionary review and other processes for mixed-income, completely zoning-compliant housing development proposals in cities not meeting their state-determined housing needs.” But due to strict qualification requirements, only three projects have been able to take advantage of the original law’s streamlining effort. The new law clears the pathway to more projects by loosening restrictions. Under AB 1485, 20% of new development units would be reserved for incomes of less that 120% of the area’s median income, a reduction from the previous requirement of 50%.

Finally, SB 13, sponsored by Senator Bob Wieckowski (D-Fremont), is designed to encourage the construction of accessory dwelling units (ADUs) by removing or decreasing fees. In addition, it “allows for automatic approval of an ADU permit application if a local agency has not acted upon the application in 60 days” and “removes the requirement that the owner of an ADU live in the main home while renting out the ADU, meaning both the main dwelling and accessory unit can be rented.” While this will not directly apply to the multifamily industry, the additional availability of ADU rental units may soften the rental housing market.

If they make it through the committee and amendment processes, each of these three bills will be voted on in early September.

Source: Bisnow

Market Pulse: East Bay, September 2019

Welcome to the NAI Northern California’s “Market Pulse” feature. We checked the pulse of the East Bay commercial real estate market to discover the ups and downs of the office, industrial, retail, and multifamily markets. Each market has four dimensions: current inventory, under construction, 12-month net absorption, and vacancy rate.

Check out our September 2019 East Bay Market Pulse infographic. If a dimension is on the rise, the pulse goes above the baseline; if it’s on the decline or negative, the pulse will dip below the baseline.

This month the East Bay office market’s inventory is up to 113 million sq. ft., with approximately 1.2 million sq. ft. under construction on an upward trend. The 12-month net absorption rate is at 1 million sq. ft. of office space. The vacancy rate is up slightly from last month but expected to drop, at 8.2 percent.

For the industrial market, 266 million sq. ft. of space is in the inventory and rising. The space under construction is also rising, at 5.7 million square feet. The 12-month net absorption has dropped significantly compared to last month, at -942,000 sq. ft. of industrial space. The vacancy rate is up slightly from last month and rising, at 4.8 percent.

There are 124 million sq. ft. of retail space available, the same as last month but on an upward trend, with 333,000 sq. ft. under construction on a declining path. The 12-month net absorption rate is at -393,000. Vacancy rates continue to rise, at 3.7%.

The multifamily market is holding strong, up to 171,000 units available in the inventory. Construction is up from last month but headed on a downswing, at 9,800 units in the pipeline. The 12-month net absorption rate is 2,000 units, the same as last month, with a rising vacancy rate of 4.6%.

For more detailed updates or to find out how the East Bay’s submarkets are doing, contact one of our advisors; whether you’re interested in officeindustrialretail, or multifamily properties, we can help.

Market Pulse: San Francisco, September 2019

Welcome to the NAI Northern California’s “Market Pulse” feature. We checked the pulse of the San Francisco commercial real estate market to discover the ups and downs of the office, industrial, retail, and multifamily markets.  Each market has four dimensions: current inventory, under construction, 12-month net absorption, and vacancy rate.

Check out our September 2019 San Francisco Market Pulse infographic. If a dimension is on the rise, the pulse goes above the baseline; if it’s on the decline or negative, the pulse will dip below the baseline.

This month the San Francisco office market’s inventory is still at 176 million sq. ft., with 1.8 million additional sq. ft. under construction and dropping. Twelve-month net absorption stands at 1.8 million sq. ft. of office space and rising, yet the vacancy rate also continues to rise, at 6.3 percent.

For the industrial market, 95 million sq. ft. of space is in the inventory (the same as last month), but the number is expected to rise as the 2.8 million sq. ft. of industrial space under construction begins completion. The amount of space under construction is expected to continue to rise despite this. The 12-month net absorption rate is at 1.8 million sq. ft. and increasing, and the vacancy rate is at 3.6% and also trending upward.

There are 82 million sq. ft. of retail space available in San Francisco, again the same as last month but expected to drop. More is coming, with about 654,000 sq. ft. under construction and a 12-month absorption rate of 232,000 sq. ft. and rising. Vacancy rates are continuing to decline, at 2.4%.

The multifamily market is slowly growing, up to 165,000 units available in the inventory. Construction is on the upswing here, both from last month and in future projections, at 6,500 units. The 12-month net absorption rate is 2,000 units and rising, with vacancy rate of 3.9%, the same as last month but projected to drop.

For more detailed updates or to find out how San Francisco’s submarkets are doing, contact one of our advisors; whether you’re interested in officeindustrialretail, or multifamily properties, we can help.

Noel Carrillo joins NAI Northern California as Investment Advisor in San Francisco

NAI Northern California is pleased to announce that Noel Carillo has joined as Investment Advisor in San Francisco. Noel specializes in multifamily properties. He has called San Francisco home for nearly a decade, seeing the City evolve over one of its most transformative eras, and now brings that local awareness to his clients in a manner that transcends the transaction and commits to long-standing relationships through open communication and transparency.

Noel is originally from San Diego and is currently attending City College of San Francisco, where he is pursing his degree in Economics. His professional enthusiasm extends into his personal life where, aside from cherished downtime with friends and family, he pursues adventures like saltwater sportfishing–frequently netting yellowfin, bluefin, and yellowtail tuna–and travels to such far-off locales as Japan, Singapore, and Indonesia.

Learn more about Noel Carillo

5 US cities with the highest cost of living

According to a recent report by Move.org, the Bay Area’s major cities continue to rank in the top five for the highest cost of living nationwide. San Francisco holds the top slot, with New York City close behind, followed by San Jose, Oakland, and Boston. The report measured the average monthly cost for rent (a 1-bedroom apartment), food (groceries and some restaurant meals), gas, utilities (electricity, water, etc.), and internet for each city.

Surprising no one, San Francisco, California is the most expensive, with rent among the highest in the nation; rent makes up 80% of the $4,210.60 monthly cost of living in the city. The city also has some of the highest gas prices at $197.88 per month, though residents who commute via bike or public transit can avoid these costs. Food is expensive, around the 80th or 90th percentile, but utilities are comparably cheap at $123.22 per month, about 30% of the national average. Internet costs are pretty middle-of-the-road compared to other cities, averaging about $66.62 per month.

New York, New York is just $250 behind SF, with an average cost of living of $3,956.11. Food is the problem here, costing over twice as much as San Francisco, at $468.60 per month. Rent is also extremely high, at $3,126.35. Gas is more expensive than the national average, around the median value, at $155.55 per month, and internet is just about average at $62.77. Utilities cost a little less than elsewhere, around $142.84 per month.

San Jose, California is the third most expensive city to live in, with lower rents than SF or New York but high gas prices and above-average food costs. The $3,289.07 cost of living includes $2,555.85 for rent, $186.15 for gas, $359.85 for food, $63.36 for internet, and $123.86 for utilities (significantly cheaper than the national average).

Despite Oakland’s reputation for being cheaper than the City, its cost of living is still fourth-highest nationwide, at $3,212.14 per month, only about $1,000 less than San Francisco. Rent and gas are the highest costs compared to the median, at $2,481.65 per month and $175.95 per month. Food is just a little more expensive than the national average, around the 30th percentile, at $347.33 per month. Internet and utility costs are pretty average, at $65.00 and $142.21.

In the last spot of the top five is Boston, Massachusetts, with New York’s high rent and food costs. An average cost of living of $3,211.51 includes $2,420.26 for rent, $435.78 for food, $145.35 for gas, $62.97 for internet, and $147.15 for utilities.

Source: Move.org