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How the stock market’s wild ride could affect CRE investment

Stock market volatility may spur investors to allocate more funds to direct ownership of real estate.

The stock market’s recent rollercoaster, with October’s sharp correction followed by a post-midterm election surge, can put the investment community on edge, including commercial real estate investors.

“People who invest in real estate don’t invest in a vacuum,” says Mark Dotzour, a real estate economist who spent 18 years as chief economist of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University before opening a private consultancy three years ago.

It’s impossible to completely separate one’s emotional reactions from financial behavior, says Mike Ervolini, CEO of Cabot Investment Technology, which sells behavioral finance software to professional equity fund managers. Ervolini previously served as a portfolio manager and CIO with AEW Capital Management.

Real estate investors pay close attention to what’s happening in the stock and bond markets and while they may be able to overlook recent volatility, they’ll need to keep an eye on longer-term trends to determine if commercial real estate investment is still the best bet for their financial portfolios, according to Dotzour. For now, it seems the answer is yes.

 

 

Read more on National Real Estate Investor

 

 

Major S.F. tech company eyes one of Oakland’s largest vacant office buildings

San Francisco-based fintech Square Inc. has eyed Oakland for a big lease, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

The payments processing company reportedly looked at Uptown Station, a 356,000-square-foot refurbished, mixed-use building that is one of the largest blocks of office space available in Oakland.

“There are large tech tenants looking at Uptown, but none have landed yet,” Edward Del Beccaro, a managing director of Transwestern, told the Chronicle.

Landlord CIM Group has been chasing tenants for the space since it bought the building in December 2017 for $180 million. The approximately $40 million renovation of Uptown Station by Truebeck Construction is expected to finish early next year.

CIM picked up the property at 1955 Broadway from Uber Technologies, which had planned to move up to 2,000 employees into the space, but decided to consolidate in San Francisco instead.

Square has been on a growth tear as of late. Over the summer, it added 104,100 square feet to its San Francisco headquarters at 1455 Market St. for a total of 469,000 square feet there. It is also growing outside the Bay Area and internationally.

In addition to Uptown Station, Oakland has a handful of similar historic rehabs, including projects from TMG Partners and Harvest Properties.

Read more on San Francisco Business Times

Identifying lucrative value-add multifamily opportunities as the cycle lengthens

There are ways to drive returns on value-add multifamily investments without spending a fortune on redevelopment.

The appetite for value-add multifamily investments remains strong—and in light of this increasing competition, many investors are struggling to identify and secure assets that present high-reward opportunities.

While some investors have turned to extreme measures, including taking on projects that require extensive remediation and complete overhauls—or even repurposing entirely different product types for multifamily use—some of the greatest opportunities for growth and stability lie in strategically identifying and refreshing functional, yet under-managed vintage communities.

 

 

Read more on National Real Estate Investor

 

 

Apartment rentals make up a larger share of new housing units in the U.S. than they have in decades

New preferences, low affordability of new homes drive greater demand for apartment rentals.

Apartment rentals have been luring residents away from other kinds of housing since the housing crash—and that is not likely to change in the foreseeable future.

“Apartments should continue to play a role in the total housing market that goes beyond the historical norm,” says Greg Willett, chief economist for Real Page Inc., a property management software and services provider based in Richardson, Texas.

In the years after the Great Recession, millions of people lost homes to foreclosure and had to move, often into apartments. The extra demand for units was not expected to last more than a few years. However, today—more than a decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers—the percentage of American households that own their own home is still near its low point. New households are still much more likely to chose to live in rental housing than in the years before the crash.

 

 

Read more on National Real Estate Investor

 

 

 

The 10 top emerging trends that will shape real estate in 2019

The Urban Land Institute’s annual look at the year ahead focuses on technology and transformation at an uncertain moment.

It’s complicated. In the course of compiling its annual Emerging Trends report, the Urban Land Institute found that the only certainty in its outlook for 2019 was uncertainty. Expert analysis points to a more complex, multi-layered series of overlapping trends, with unpredictable results, as opposed to a few strong narratives.

Will technology offer more opportunity and enhance competition and efficiency, or help consolidate the industry and drive out smaller players? How will shifts in demographics and shopping patterns challenge current investment practices? Will the U.S. ever get a grip on its housing affordability issues?

The report, a joint project of ULI and PricewaterhouseCoopers researchers unveiled during its fall meeting in Boston this afternoon, considered the responses of more than 750 real estate professionals in creating an high-level overview of the trends it believes will impact the real estate world. While the report expects an overall economic slowdown next year, emerging trends and markets in flux that could provide new opportunities.

 

 

Read more on Curbed

 

 

 

Making heads or tails of the U.S. multifamily sector

If you were to focus solely on the slowing pace of rent gains, burgeoning supply and the rise in interest rates, you might assume that the real estate market isn’t in a strong place right now.

But despite all of the above, the multifamily market is in a healthy position. Demand is being driven by encouraging demographic shifts and a strong economy. Despite moderating elements, because the economy is healthy, the apartment market is similarly healthy, even if the boom from earlier in this economic cycle has tapered off.

GDP growth came in at 2.3% for the year in 2017, and a whopping 4.2% in Q2 2018. Consumers are buying confidently provided that tax cuts will improve yearly income even despite stagnant wage growth. Our multifamily clients are anticipating that U.S. rent growth should maintain its current pace, largely thanks to cities in the South and West, where supply hasn’t outpaced demand.

According to the Spring 2018 Yardi Matrix U. S. Multifamily Outlook report, given the state of supply and demand in most metro areas and the steady economy, rents are projected to increase by 2.9% nationwide this year, with heavy concentration in late-stage southern and western U.S. markets. However, concerns about affordability are keeping prices from rising at an exceptionally fast rate, and new supply is also helping to keep those costs level. As for the supply, completions are expected to maintain the same steady pace they have over the past few years. Absorption rates are anticipated to remain strong for the remainder of the year, and 290,000 additional units are expected to finish construction by 2018, resulting in a 2.2% increase of stock. Another big factor that’s supporting the real estate market is the steady flow of capital pouring into the industry.

 

 

Read more on Forbes

 

 

 

BART picks developers for huge housing and office development at Lake Merritt in Oakland

Bay Area Regional Transit officials selected a development team to revamp three city blocks above the Lake Merritt BART Station in Oakland.

The agency picked Strada Investment Group and the East Bay Asian Local Development Corp. to develop 1.4 acres into two high-rise towers with 519 homes and 517,000 square feet of commercial space.

EBALDC is one of Oakland’s top nonprofit housing developers with 27 communities in the city. San Francisco-based Strada has owned multiple office buildings in downtown Oakland and has developed multiple projects in various Bay Area cities.

The winning team beat out proposals from global real estate investor Hines, Menlo Park-based Lane Partners and a partnership of Oakland-based McGrath Properties Inc. and Canadian investor Brookfield Residential. Lane Partners came in second, according to a BART staff report.

The BART board will formally vote to select the Strada/EBALDC Team at its meeting Thursday and start a two-year exclusive negotiating agreement to finalize the project. if the two sides fail to negotiate a project in that time frame, BART could then give Lane Partners a shot without having to do another selection process.

BART has wanted to develop its land above the Lake Merritt Station for years. The goal is to boost BART ridership and attract more residents, businesses, and pedestrians to a relatively quiet stretch of Oakland nestled between the city’s core downtown and the lake.

 

Read more on San Francisco Business Times

 

 

 

UC Berkeley professor blames rent control for California’s housing shortage

Kenneth Rosen hopes to sway voters against Proposition 10.

Kenneth Rosen, a UC Berkeley economist and real estate consultant, published a paper Wednesday titled The Case For Preserving Costa Hawkins, in hopes of swaying voters against Proposition 10.

Proposition 10, which will go before voters in November, would repeal the 1995 Costa-Hawkins Act, a state law that severely curtails rent control in California cities. For example, under Costa-Hawkins, only San Francisco apartments built before 1979 may be subject to rent control.

Passing Proposition 10 would not in and of itself create any new rent control housing, but it would allow cities to expand rent control stock for the first time in decades if they so choose.

Rosen, however, argues that turning the clock back to 1994 will stifle new housing and drain apartment stock.

 

Read more on Curbed SF

 

Mid-Market scares off tenants at SF’s big empty mall

6×6 still a zero for actual stores.

The towering, five-story, 250,000-square-foot mall at 950 Market Street dubbed 6×6 finished construction in 2016 after years of development, only to then sit completely empty without a single retail tenant.

Building staff keeps an eye on the place every day, but it’s something of a surreal spectacle as they’re the only people ever in the looming structure, which quickly developed a somewhat creepy vibe.

In November 2017, a source involved with the project told Curbed SF that the building was finally seeing some leasing activity and predicted two big tenants by year’s end. But presently the only activity there is a parking lot in the basement.

In March of 2018, as part of a bid to convert much of the interior space to office use, lawyer Daniel A. Frattin wrote to the San Francisco Planning Commission on behalf of building management and blamed high costs and Amazon influence for the state of the five-story fiasco.

 

 

 

Read more on Curbed SF

 

 

 

What retail apocalypse? Ask some department stores, but not all

Adapt or die isn’t just a tenet of evolution: It’s also the reality faced by the U.S. department-store industry. And some are doing it far better than their rivals.

Although the chains are often lumped together with other mall mainstays when lamenting the “retail apocalypse,’’ this past week’s earnings reports underscore just how different department stores’ strategies are amid a wider brick-and-mortar slowdown.

Nordstrom Inc., for instance, posted same-store sales that were almost four times higher than expected after drawing in buyers for both its full-priced and discounted merchandise, powered by a massive anniversary sale. At the other end of the spectrum, CEO-less J.C. Penney Co. saw its stock plunge to historic lows as it put more items on clearance to get rid of excess inventory. And for Macy’s Inc., which beat virtually every estimate set by the market but still disappointed investors, it seems the jury’s still out.

“If you’re not doing well now, you’ll have a hard time when thing slow down,” said Ivan Feinseth, chief investment officer at Tigress Financial Partners. “Right now, we have a 50-year low level of unemployment, you have a consumer that’s flush, a stock market at record levels, a strong housing market and easy and low-cost credit. So you have the Goldilocks environment, or the perfect environment, for the consumer.”

 

 

Read more on Bloomberg